Improving Wind Speed Predictions Using Ensemble Flow Modeling
12 Sep 18
3:30 PM
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4:45 PM
Tracks:
Wind Flow Modeling
Energy yield predictions on a given wind farm site will often make use of a single wind flow model. In some cases, multiple models may be considered, but most typically a single model is selected, being considered the most accurate for the site based on cross-prediction performance or applicability to the terrain or flow environment. As in weather prediction, ensemble approaches may be of value to the wind industry, where they have not historically been used in flow modeling. Here we present the results from several wind flow models and combine their results to demonstrate the favorable potential of ensemble approaches to reduce spatial extrapolation uncertainty in pre-construction energy yield assessments.