A New Analytical Framework to Improve Risk Quantification and Optimize Measurement Campaigns
12 Sep 18
3:30 PM
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4:45 PM
Tracks:
Wind Flow Modeling
An accurate assessment of the uncertainty is critical for evaluating the bankability of a future wind project, yet the pre-construction estimation of the annual energy production (AEP) remains a highly uncertain process. Uncertainty arises at all steps in the development process: measurement campaigns, long-term adjustments, wind flow modelling, power curves... This paper introduces a new rigorous mathematical approach to quantify the overall projected Pxx values of a future wind project (where Pxx is the AEP with any confidence threshold such as 75% or 90%) by properly accounting for flow modelling uncertainties individually evaluated at each turbine level considering location-specific representative variables. Indeed, wind flow modelling uncertainty is one of the most important source of uncertainty, especially in complex sites or when dealing with large projects involving numerous turbines positions.