Explore Appropriate Approaches to Produce Pxx 8760 Profiles Considering Atmospheric Persistence
12 Sep 18
8:30 AM
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10:00 AM
Tracks:
Time Series Energy Modeling
Many off-takers and asset managers require that the 8760 profiles at different probability exceedance (Pxx) levels be provided. The approaches to estimate the annual and monthly Pxx power productions have been well established. However, on an hourly scale, the approaches and results differ significantly. The main challenges to produce Pxx 8760 profiles are four-fold: (1) significant variability with high uncertainty; (2) existence of atmospheric persistence, i.e., statistical dependence among successive occurrences of a given weather event and/or a meteorological variable; (3) correlation of wind and other meteorological variables dictating the wind turbine status; and (4) climate change. The purpose of this paper, utilizing a 100 MW project as a case study, is to (1) analyze the atmospheric persistence at different temporal scales; (2) explain why persistence needs to be considered in producing the Pxx 8760 profiles; and (3) explore appropriate approaches to produce the profiles.