Uncertainty quantification in the analyses of operational wind power plant performance
11 Sep 18
2:30 PM
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3:45 PM
Tracks:
Data Science and Digitalization
Data collected during the operation of wind power plants may be used in many diverse contexts by different interested parties, raising the question of consistency and reproducibility of the operational data analysis used by different analysts. In the present work, we begin to build an understanding of how variations in an analyst-chosen data handling methodology can influence analysis results, particularly with respect to using operational data to validate, calibrate, and refine wind flow and wake loss models used in preconstruction energy estimates. By considering multiple reasonable methodologies, we characterize the uncertainty introduced by the analysis methodology and thus place lower bounds on the precision with which operational data may be used for refinement of the models. To date, our analysis of the methods to evaluate the operational performance of a plant (a single stage of the comparison process) suggests a minimum uncertainty of 3% the expected power production.