Climate reanalysis data as a long term source: Performance review of ERA5 vs MERRA-2
11 Sep 18
4:00 PM
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5:00 PM
Tracks:
Poster Presentation
During the last decade the wind energy industry benefited from the development of the climate reanalysis data as a reliable long term source. Wind speed and energy prediction represent a critical part of the development of a wind farm, and upmost accurate and robust numbers are needed.
In 2017, the ECMWF is releasing the fifth generation of atmospheric reanalyses of the global climate ERA5 for the period 2010 up to date.
Seven sites are selected over Canada, having at least two-years of measured data, good availability and covering complex, medium, simple and forested terrains. A review of the performance of ERA5 is done in terms of temporal consistency, wind rose and long term trends. The quality of correlations “goodness-of-fit” with measured data from different locations is checked and compared with MERRA2 results. Ultimately, the change in the predicted long term wind speed as well as the change in annual energy production is quantified.