Resource and Project Energy Assessment 2018

Comparison of Wind Farm Net Present Value (NPV) Calculated from Linear and Mesoscale Model Based Wind Maps Corrected With Increasing Data Coverage

11 Sep 18
4:00 PM - 5:00 PM

Tracks: Poster Presentation

Speaker(s): Nathan Lehman, Energy Analyst, Apex Clean Energy Inc.

With the looming PTC cliff, development cycles are becoming compressed at the expense of resource uncertainty reduction. Mesoscale models corrected with increasing met coverage can reduce the resource uncertainty and provide a more accurate NPV quantification more quickly than a linear model. This study uses NPV as a proxy to determine performance of linear models vs mesoscale models at three different projects using increasing amounts of on-site data to correct absolute model values. Relative NPV values will be determined at the projects at four different points in time, using a tower adjusted mesoscale model created wind map as the baseline for comparison. The data record for this baseline scenario will include no more than one full year of data in order to create an even comparison between projects. All three projects are in similar terrain and the mesoscale models are from the same source in an attempt to eliminate those sources of bias.