A New Method to Assess Wind Farm Performance and Quantify Model Uncertainty
12 Sep 18
1:30 PM
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3:00 PM
Tracks:
Rapid Fire Session, Wind Flow Modeling
A novel approach of assessing a wind farm’s performance using pre-construction and operational met data has been developed and will be presented with results of a case study from a wind farm with over 100 turbines. In this technique, a site-calibrated Continuum® wind flow model is created using pre-construction met data. The met data collected during wind farm operation is then imported into the model and the net energy production is calculated at each turbine. By comparing true energy production to modeled energy production, under-performing turbines can be easily identified and the impact of production boosting technology can be assessed. Additionally, this technique allows for the quantification of the model uncertainty which will improve the confidence level of future project estimates. In the case study, the average modeled energy uncertainty was 4.0%. Finally, by utilizing this method on an annual basis, changes in the wind farm’s performance may be tracked and monitored.