Economic Uncertainty, the Global Economy and Semiconductors
Brexit, turmoil in global financial markets, the U.S. presidential elections, shifting policy in Japan and China, and central banks in Europe and Japan following negative interest rate policies all contribute to increased economic policy uncertainty. The forecasting community’s consensus outlook, however, continues to anticipate a mild pickup in real growth in the second half of 2016 and 2017. We will examine the risks and balance the conflicting views to determine the likely path of the economy using the latest information available. The focus of the talk will be on the critical path of key final demand components that ultimately determine the path for SEMI’s measure of the Million Square Inches (MSI) of silicon wafers shipped. Once the economic forecast has been dissected, its implications for MSI output through 2017 will be discussed.