Validating the Crystal Ball for O&M cost projections
(Room Collaboration Station)
23 May 19
9:15 AM
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10:15 AM
Tracks:
Operations and Maintenance
Whether financing, repowering, or reconsidering a service strategy, wind farm stakeholders need a clear picture of future maintenance costs to make critical decisions. O&M cost forecasting is essential in all phases of a wind farm’s lifespan: • Evaluating wind farm designs • Evaluating risk mitigation strategies • Setting assumptions during project finance and M&A transactions • Comparing O&M strategies Turbine O&M costs can be highly variable and are often subject to considerable debate at these key decision points. A rigorous methodology for cost projection coupled with a deep understanding of the many factors that influence O&M costs is critical to enable this uncertainty to be quantified and baseline assumptions to be appropriately set. DNV GL’s probabilistic O&M cost model forecasts O&M costs considering a wide range of project-specific factors, including turbine model, site-conditions, project location, and maintenance strategy. In this presentation, DNV GL will discuss the methodology for such cost projections and the validation of these assumptions using DNV GL’s database of North American wind farm operating data. This database includes over 900 project-years of detailed O&M cost data from more than 200 wind farms. The validation process, a sample of the results, and key trends will be presented to offer insights into major influencing factors of O&M costs which owners and investors can use to make better informed decisions.