Shorter wind data for AEP calculation and risk analyses
10 Sep 19
5:00 PM
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6:00 PM
Tracks:
Longer-Term Influences
Recently market and customer demand is focusing more on shorter periods of wind measurements for annual energy production (AEP) prognosis when a good understanding of the financial and economic risks is indicated.
Currently, a wind measurement period of at least 12 consecutive months, having good data availability and covering all common meteorological phenomena at a site is used for AEP calculations and site suitability studies, as a standard practice. The scope of this work is to quantify the uncertainty in AEP long-term calculations using shorter periods of wind data in terms of both number of months and seasonal variations.
Forty sites are selected covering different regions from Europe, Asia, North and South America having at least one year of measured data, good availability and located in complex, medium, simple or forested areas. The long-term wind speed, AEP and errors are calculated for different periods of time: 3, 6 and 9 months; the change relative to the original values is investigated using different statistical parameters. The impact of seasonality, orography and duration on the long-term wind speed values and uncertainty is going to be assessed.