Automated Vehicles Symposium 2019

Simulating Potential Changes in Long Distance Travel Congestion and Emissions with Automated Vehicle Adoption (Room Palms Ballroom - Booth 100)

16 Jul 19
5:30 PM - 7:00 PM

Long distance and intercity travel is one of the most suitable and ripe areas for automated vehicle (AV) adoption.  While much work focuses on daily uses of AVs, less research considers the impact that AVs will have on air travel competition, interstate congestion, and the resulting impact on emissions. For example, our research team previously used the Michigan state long distance travel survey to develop a statewide simulation incorporating AVs that concluded that up to 25% of air travel trips could be converted into AV.  This research extends our previous project to determine potential changes in interstate congestion VMT and emissions in Alabama and Georgia based on three different potential AV characteristic scenarios (low cost/little perceived change in travel time, average cost/average perceived change in travel time, and high cost/greater perceived change in travel time).  The research uses trip records from the Longitudinal Survey of Overnight Travel (LSOT), the most recent annual long distance travel survey in the US, and US American Community Survey (ACS) demographics.  Travel patterns with and without the availability of AVs were estimated using the following steps: 1) a long distance discrete mode choice model is estimated based on recorded LSOT trips with mode characteristic independent variables, 2) a Monte Carlo simulation using ACS demographics and the LSOT is used to generate population and long distance travel demand for each state, 2) AV characteristics are identified for the three different scenarios, 3) mode splits and VMT are estimated for travelers by applying the mode choice model for a base (no AV) option and the three scenarios, 4) emissions are calculated for the VMT and modes in each scenario, and 5) emissions and VMT are compared between the base (no AV) option and the three AV scenarios. Emission costs for the base and alternate models were calculated on a per-mile basis under the assumption AVs would incur the same costs as a personal vehicle. Results from each scenario support a shift from air travel to AV use, with the most AV adoption found in the ‘average cost/average perceived change in travel time’ option. With the estimated reduction in air travel, overall emissions will reduce but interstate VMT will increase.